Projected Path of Hurricane Tomas

As of the 8AM AST National Hurricane Center advisory, Hurricane Tomas was located at 14.0°N 63.3°W, or approximately 155 to the west of St Lucia, and 355 miles to the SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The storm is packing winds of up to 100 miles per hour, and is moving in a WNW direction at approximately 8 miles per hour. The projected path of Tomas is to continue it on a WNW path, and then on Thursday abruptly change to a more northerly heading. The National Hurricane Center has Tomas just south of the country of Haiti by Friday morning, as a very powerful storm.

Although we are still about 5 days away from any possibly landfall in the Caribbean, residents in the small country of Haiti, have to be on edge. A Major hurricane, the size of Hurricane Tomas, is something that, the country which experienced a major earthquake on January 12th of this year, which killed an estimated 230,000 people, doesn’t even want to consider.

Anyone in the Caribbean needs to pay extremely close attention to future National Hurricane Center updates.

Projected Path of Hurricane Tomas

As of the 2PM AST National Hurricane Center advisory, Hurricane Tomas was located at 13.4°N 61.0°W, which places the center of the storm about 25 miles to the south of St. Lucia, and 10 miles to the northeast of St. Vincent. Tomas is moving in a WNW direction at approximately 75 miles per hour, and has maximum sustained winds around the eye of 75 miles per hour. This makes Tomas a minimal hurricane, however meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center expect the storm to strengthen quite a bit over the next several days.

So where will the hurricane go? Although many of the computer models have yet to agree on a long term path of the storm, most are pointing it in the direction of Jamaica over the next 5 days or so. According to the NHC, Tomas should continue on it’s WNW path for quite some time, before changing to a NW direction at the end of the 5 day forecast. This would mean the storm should be about 150 miles to the south of Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon, and about 100-150 miles south of the island of Hispaniola by Tuesday morning. Remember that hurricane prediction is not an exact science, so the cone of error is quite large.

Anyone living in the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to this possibly dangerous hurricane.

Projected Path of Tropical Storm Shary

Tropical Storm Shary is located at 29.3N 65.7W, which puts it approximately 220 miles to the SSW of Bermuda. Shary currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, making it a minimal tropical storm, and likely will not strengthen too much more before it makes it’s way towards Bermuda. The storm is moving at a rapid 18 miles per hour to the Northwest, however is about to change directions very soon.

The Projected path for Shary, provided by the National Hurricane Center, is one which will take it more in a northerly direction throughout the day today. Sometime this afternoon Shary should be at it’s closest point to Bermuda as it will get. It will then pick up forward speed and by Saturday afternoon already be over 500 miles away from the island. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the nation of Bermuda, although, the storm likely will not cause much damage, being mainly a rain maker.

There are a couple other areas in the Atlantic basin that need to be monitored. It is possible that we could need to utilize the entire list of names provided for this season’s storms. The next three named storms will be Tomas, Virginie, and Walter.

Projected Path of Tropical Storm Richard

The Current Location of Richard is 16.2°N 80.4°W, which puts it about 220 miles to the SSE of Grand Cayman. It is moving to the southeast at approximately 6 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center’s projected path for Richard is one that will take it about 100 miles off the northern coast of Honduras by Sunday morning. From there the storm should make landfall somewhere along the Yucatan Peninsula, as likely a hurricane. Tropical Storm Richard will then likely emerge off the northern coast of the Yucatan sometime Tuesday morning. From there, computer models either take it towards the northern Gulf of Mexico, where shear weakens it significantly, or take it into the West Coast of Florida as a hurricane.

Computer models are just getting a handle on the situation, and will likely go back and forth in solutions over the next few days. All interests, especially along the western portions of Florida, should pay close attention to this storm over the next several days. It has the potential to be one of the most dangerous storms of the 2010 season for the United States. The hurricane season is winding down, however, that doesn’t mean that people along the coast of the Gulf and Southeast US can let their guards down yet.

Projected Path of Hurricane Paula

As of the 5PM EST National Hurricane Center advisory, Paula has maximum sustained winds of about 85 miles per hour, and was moving in a NNE direction at 5 miles per hour. The current location is 21.7°N 85.6°W, which puts Paula about 45 miles to the west of the western most tip of Cuba. Over the next 4 days the National Hurricane Center expects a projected path that will take the storm in a northeast direction, and gradually all the way east. Over the next several days Paula should gradually lose strength, likely being downgraded to a tropical storm sometime tomorrow. The center of circulation should pretty much ride the northern coast of Cuba.

There has been a tropical storm watch posted for the Florida Keys, a hurricane warning for the western tip of Cuba, and a hurricane watch for the rest of Western Cuba. All Interests in the Caribbean and Florida should continue to pay attention to this storm.

The Projected Path of Tropical Storm Paula

As we approach the latter part of the hurricane season, storms typically form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, and eventually move to the northeast. Paula, according to the 5 day forecast from the NHC, will likely meander in the Gulf of Honduras and Caribbean for the next several days. Paula is expected to strengthen, becoming a hurricane sometime in the next couple of days. The projected path of Tropical storm Paula takes it to the northwest, then north, placing it just off of Cozumel on Wednesday afternoon. From there it is projected to move east, and then south, putting it only about 250 miles to the NNE of where it is right now.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the coast of Mexico from Punta Gruesa northward to Cancun. A tropical storm waring is also issued from Chetumal, Mexico, northward to Punta Gruesa. All interests along the eastern coast of Mexico, and later in the week, the Gulf of Mexico, should pay close attention to the future track projections.

Projected Path of Hurricane Otto

Otto is currently moving ENE at approximately 17 miles per hour, and is expected to continue this motion for several days. The projected path of Otto, according to the National Hurricane center in Miami, is one which will continue to take it ENE until Monday morning. At this time Otto will likely be a subtropical system, and begin moving to the South East. The system should not have any major affects on land in the next 5 days.

Otto is the 8th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The season, which has been above average in the number of named storms, has been relatively quiet in terms of landfalls in the United States.

The Projected Path of Subtropical Storm Otto

The National Hurricane Center predicts Otto to become a hurricane by Friday morning. The good thing though about this storm, much like the majority of other tropical systems this year, is that it will likely not affect any land. The projected path from the NHC takes Otto North today, then bends it to the northeast for the remainder of the 5 day forecast.

A subtropical storm is a storm which has features of both a tropical system, as well as an extratropical system. The requirements of a subtropical storm such as Otto, is central convection near the center of the storm, as well as a warming core in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

Projected Path of Tropical Storm Nicole

Tropical Storm Nicole was upgraded at 11AM EST by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. Although the center of the storm is very broad, the NHC has officially located it at 22.6°N 80.6°W, which places Nicole right over the western half of Cuba. The tropical storm is moving northeast at approximately 9 miles per hour, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour. The minimum central pressure of the storm is 996 millibars, which is very low for a minimal tropical storm.

The Projected path of Nicole has changed somewhat from only a few hours ago. The center of circulation will likely graze the southeast coast of Florida, probably never making it’s way on shore completely. Having said this, the center is very broad, meaning that nasty weather will likely not be confined only to the center of circulation. By 8 AM tomorrow, Nicole will likely become extratropical, somewhere off the coast of Northern Florida. Extratropical cyclones are usually characterized by having neither tropical nor polar attributes, and are usually connected to fronts. The system will then move up the eastern seaboard, producing heavy rain, and flash flooding throughout a large portion of the East Coast of the United States. Up to a foot of rain could fall in parts of Southeast Florida as well as the Carolina’s and Virginia as the system progresses up the coast.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued by the NHC for a large portion of the Bahama’s, as most of the bad weather is to the east of the center of circulation. Tropical storm warnings and watches have been dropped for all of Florida as the projected path of the storm has been adjusted further to the east. Rain and flash flooding, rather than wind, will be the major concern throughout the day, today and tomorrow, for much of the East Coast.

Projected Path for Tropical Storm Matthew

Matthew currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour, and is located about 200 miles south of Jamaica, at 14.0°N 76.9°W. It is moving west as 16 miles per hour, and is forecast to become Hurricane Matthew within the next 72 hours. Computer models are pretty much all over the place on this system, however, the National Hurricane Center has issued their best guess as to a projected path for the storm. They have Tropical Storm Mathew continuing towards Central America over the next couple days. By Saturday morning it should be somewhere along the northern coast of Honduras. It will then start to turn towards the Northwest, likely affecting Belize on Sunday. From there, the projected path has Matthew turning north and than NNE, skirting the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The long term forecast for Matthew could take it anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico, or even completely miss the Gulf Coast altogether. Anyone along the Gulf Coast, from Mexico to Florida needs to pay particular attention to the NHC forecasts over the next several days. We are getting into the latter part of hurricane season, meaning that there will likely be systems forming closer to home, many of which could affect states along the Gulf Coast.