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Rally to Restore Sanity Crowd Estimate for Attendance Numbers Too Low?

Posted by Adam Ellis on Oct 30th, 2010 and filed under Featured News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Rally to restore sanity attendance numbers crowd estimate

Rally to Restore Sanity

The crowd estimate numbers released today for the Rally to Restore Sanity in Washington D.C. appear to be low, according to those who were on hand. The initial attendance estimates said there were about 150,000 people at the event. However, from sources that were actually at the event, the attendance numbers appear to be closer to the 250,000 people range.

These numbers would blow other rally attendance numbers out of the waters. For example the crowd estimate for the Glenn Beck Rally was only about 87,000. It looks like there are more followers of Comedy Central than that of popular political personalities like Beck.

What do you think? How many people do you think were in attendance for the rally today? Are the estimates too low?

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1561458990 Andy Martin

    I was there. it was standing room only from the cap building to the monument and across the width of the mall and for a block past that. I don’t know about past the monument but the size of the crowd looked to be of vietnam-era proportions.

  • http://twitter.com/AatRB Rational Behavior

    It depends on what they’re counting. I was there but couldn’t get anywhere near the actual fenced in mall area designated for the rally goers. Much of the crowd spilled out along the edges about a block or two to either side of the mall. I’m not a good estimator, so I don’t know. But I do know I’ve never been in a crowd like that. I would wonder if the DC and MD transportation departments could give a better figure since many people used the metro and city buses to arrive.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_CVJYD6BTC5322BB7JGZHHUT6RM Jc

    could it have been as high as 1 million?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1095644206 Tuula Rissanen Ross

    I was there and we were packed like a can of sardines. It was awesome.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1095644206 Tuula Rissanen Ross

    i agree. at many points you couldn’t walk any further. the crowd just came to a stop and you were stuck there unless you turned back around to try to move to another spot.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_H52S5R5PDATG5TOPEOMSU5L7UY Debra

    I couldn’t tell you how many people were there since we were in the middle of Constitution Avenue in front of the National Gallery of Art. It was jam packed in the street, on the sidewalks and everywhere the eye could see. I do know that when we finally got there at about 1:15 (thanks, Metro) there were as many people leaving as were coming in on 9th Street. Whatever the numbers, it was a great group of people and very entertaining.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1288766784 Beth Aylworth

    The mass transit folks said that they were ‘overwhelmed’ by the crowds and the demands for their services. So, yes, they’re probably good ones to ask. They’ve handled crowds for past gatherings, as well as being geared up to have added use from tourists on the weekends. I haven’t heard of any untoward behavior. Looks like everyone stayed sane and rational!

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1288766784 Beth Aylworth

    The mass transit folks said that they were ‘overwhelmed’ by the crowds and the demands for their services. So, yes, they’re probably good ones to ask. They’ve handled crowds for past gatherings, as well as being geared up to have added use from tourists on the weekends. I haven’t heard of any untoward behavior. Looks like everyone stayed sane and rational!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_YHCGRIPLPLSZ6WPJUZ5ZO2FW2I Jag

    I was there and the crowd numbers can be roughly estimated by the Wave propagating from start and end experiment conducted by the myth buster guys. From what we could see on the screen, the middle of the two waves (started simultaneously from the crowd in front and from the crowd in the back!) was somewhere close to the washington monument!!! There were atleast 250,000 people if not more. I’ve been to Beck’s rally too, and there’s no way his numbers could’ve compared to what I saw today.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/FDGYHBEWVNGUG763L5X4TON3JQ Nazani14

    i was there- the crowd filled 4 fifths of the mall with barely room to walk. There were people on top of the port-a-potties, filling the steps of the museums, sitting on walls, in trees- Some of the crowd started to leave about 2 pm, but they were being replaced by new arrivals at the same time. Someone needs to count metro tickets sold, and that won’t be a complete total, because many people arrived days ago.

  • Anonymous

    it looks like well more than twice the becka-for loser crowd and they were spread out with lawn chairs and blankets — this crowd was standing room only

    an official crowd estimate for the beck event was 87,000 so I believe the 250,000 which would actually make it like

    35,000,000

    using University of I Don’t Know Tea Bagger math

  • Anonymous

    If it was being estimated by teabaggers about teabaggers, the estimate would be closer to 7 million.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1531032810 Nancy Mulvey Forsyth

    Easily 250,000 people there. Mile long wait to get a Metro ticket. A usual 25 minute commute took 4 1/2 hours. Metro tix guys said they were close to 300,000 people coming through Smithsonian station at 1:30-ish

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_4J5Y6BBULWDOSRHFRADHQX4WMQ Cameron

    I was there, and I can say there were a ton of people there. We were around 75% of the way back, and when the Mythbusters started the wave from the front, we stood around for close to 30 seconds with nothing happening before the wave hit us. And like many have said, people were packed like sardines from the Capitol to the Monument.

    Loved all the signs there too. It was great to look around seeing signs that inspire humor instead of hate.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=655748089 Susan Sather

    Estimates seem way too low, I have been to many DC events, and this was a large and very densely packed crowd, never experienced one like it before. Super friendly, but huge.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=655748089 Susan Sather

    Estimates seem way too low, I have been to many DC events, and this was a large and very densely packed crowd, never experienced one like it before. Super friendly, but huge.

  • http://twitter.com/VinayDCardwell VinayDeanCardwell

    Where can I go to get some solid numbers? I can’t seem to find it on google.

  • Anonymous

    I hope that CBS hires the same analyst who, by looking at aerial photos, estimated 87,000 +- 9000 at the August Beck/Palin rally. Anything else is just a SWAG. Remember that Beck estimated at least a half million, and Michele Bachman claimed there were a million people at the “Restoring Honor” rally. I would like to believe 250,000 or more (as one who was there, it certainly seemed like a huge crowd today), but subjective estimates are notoriously unreliable.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/John-Way/1049364568 John Way

    I was on the Metro and around the mall during “Beckapalooza” and today’s rally. The Metro was more crowded today. I believe today’s rally took up more of the Mall, and we didn’t have the Reflecting Pool, war memorials, or as many trees taking up space like the Beck rally had. Also, as others have noted, today was people packed in standing up, while the Beck rally had people packed in their little picnic areas and lawn chairs. So, basically, there were many more people there today.

  • Anonymous

    It’s good to hear an impression from someone who was at both events.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Randall-Rhea/1656580279 Randall Rhea

    The Metro was so crowded, the lines were hours long, and some people couldn’t even get to the Rally. The crowd stretched from the Capitol to the Washington Monument and spilled over into side streets. I think even the 250,000 estimate was way too low.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BSS4K3KYXFGOF6WPYM4FG6WPVY Soj

    I was there as well, and judging from the fact that I was there for the National Book Fest a few weeks ago, I can tell you there were far more than that. It took me 4 hours to get out of DC, that has never happened. It was amazing. The people were even beyond polite. Great crowd of people!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BSS4K3KYXFGOF6WPYM4FG6WPVY Soj

    I was there as well, and judging from the fact that I was there for the National Book Fest a few weeks ago, I can tell you there were far more than that. It took me 4 hours to get out of DC, that has never happened. It was amazing. The people were even beyond polite. Great crowd of people!

  • Anonymous

    One of the things I noticed was the density of the crowd. The Beck rally had plenty of room for each person to swing a cat…the Sanity people were shoulder to shoulder.

  • Anonymous

    The wave experiment even gets it short because a lot of us (my group ran up against a density that stopped us in our tracks at the front edge of the Smithsonian Castle) couldn’t hear much of anything. We saw some of the wave happening, but the back “wave” wasn’t definitely not the back…they were just the last people who could hear. I think they could have used two or three more sets of speakers moving father back. To be fair, once the lawns were opened up and people were not just stuck on the pathways anymore the crowd filled in about to the Smithsonian castle- not all the way to the Washington Monument.Also, the metro and bus numbers will give a low estimate too. At 11:00 am at the Adams Morgan station the trains were totally full- no one could get on, and as many people were coming up the escalator (giving up on the trains and buses and walking in) as there were going down. For our part- we waited in a line (one of 6 or so) of 30 ish people to get tickets. Went down to the trains where the crowd took up a full half of the platform, laughed when the train pulled up and the people on it (literally packed in like sardines without room for a single other body) just shook their heads at us, turn around, and walked to the capitol. This was on the red line… which requires a transfer to get anywhere near the mall.

    The crowd was huge, and the crowd walking in just kept filing past long after we had settled on the lawn. It was awesome.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Tarrant/783069350 Jim Tarrant

    The Park Service calculates actual crowd sizes for their management needs using GIS-based algorithms. I was there and the crowd was not only really huge it was also a) spilling far across the Mall onto the adjacent museums and streets and b) continually pulsing in and out (a smaller but steady stream). Given that the crowd not only stretched across the entire Mall but was densely packed, I would have to say upwards of 500,000 were there. Where we were consisted about 60% 20-30 years of age and 40% 40-100 years. Lots of really cool, imaginative signs and many snarky costumes. Unlike Glenn Beck nobody lounging around in chairs chaise lounges.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Tarrant/783069350 Jim Tarrant

    Metro recorded 350,000 trips (0n tickets/passes) going to the destination stops. On a typical Saturday, you would expect to see maybe 5% of that amount. Do the math. That doesn’t include buses and cars though realistically Metro is really the only practical way to get to the Mall for an “event”. So use 300,000 as your base and then add all the people coming into Union Station on trains, all the people walking, bicycling, etc. and you are getting closer to half million.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Tarrant/783069350 Jim Tarrant

    Many Metro knowledgeable people got off at Union Station or Judiciary Square close to upper end of the Rally thus avoiding the change of trains and the squash at the Smithsonian stop.

  • Anonymous

    I was there too – capitol to washington monument??? That’s a stretch, but certainly big numbers. Packed to capitol to castle, yes, monument…not so much. Great fun all around though.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jim-Tarrant/783069350 Jim Tarrant

    I think the Comedy Central people will be stunned at what actually happened because their sound systems though barely adequate clearly anticipated a much smaller audience.

  • Anonymous

    From what I’ve seen and heard of the two rallies I definitely think it’s plausible that the Stewart rally brought more people (and as a huge fan of his I hope it did) but I just want to make sure we’re properly qualifying these early number comparisons. The 87,000 estimate for Beck’s rally is probably the most accurate given that it was commissioned by CBS as a scientific estimation, but it is the low outlier of all the estimates from that day. I don’t think choosing the highest crowd guestimations from today’s rally and comparing them to the lowest estimation from Beck’s rally is a fair comparison. I think we’ll have to wait and see what the CBS estimation comes out to be (while also keeping in mind the time the picture was taken and the amount of people still stuck in metro or attending satellite rallies around the country).

  • Anonymous

    Forget all the skepticism, the CBS numbers are out, I just hadn’t found them yet. The same service who gave the 87,000 estimate to Beck gives a 215,000 estimate to Stewart. Sanity has prevailed!

  • http://www.facebook.com/aglascock Alex Glascock

    i can’t say how many people were there, but it was a lot. dense crowds from the stage back to the washington monument and on the street way back to the sides of the mall. it was pretty wild, cant compare it to inauguration though.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Amy-Harrison/1010678350 Amy Harrison

    I went to see the Newseum on the day of Becks thing (which is right near the Mall)and then popped downto see the rally…. and today I went to Stewart’s thing. While, there was a significant crowd at Beck thing, when you compare it to today, it is not even in the same ballpark. Today, there would be no popping in. I have never seen anything like it. Think of the most crowed, tightly packed bar you have ever been in.. it was like that at least all the way up to the castle. Then there were still big crowds further back-apparently to the monument?
    Becks thing was not nearly as dense or deep. The density of the crowds was so different, I don’t even understand how the experts can compare them.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Ed-Falconer/100000602993481 Ed Falconer

    True and by the time they realized what had happened, it was too late to do anything about it. I really hope they replay it on tv since I was right there on 7th and Madison and heard only some of it. Great crowd and only the best of people were there!

  • Anonymous

    I was there and it was awesome! I was up neat the front because a friend and I got downtown around 8:30 am to try and get a good spot and there were a few hundred people there; I could even walk around and take pictures. By the time the rally started it was like “you better stay in your spot cuz you are not gonna make it back!” It was shoulder to shoulder as far as the eye could see! People “saying excuse me”, “please” and “thank you” and everyone had a good time! I mean the O’Jays? Mavis Staples? Tony Bennett? You kiddin me? Simply awesome!!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Estimates are absolutely too low! I was at Altamount, and at the Dalai Lama’s big appearance in Central Park, which drew 150,000. This was definitely larger than the latter, and maybe more than 1/2 the former. A wave started by the Myth Busters guys took 56 seconds to reach the back of the crowd from the front, and people were packed shoulder to shoulder most of the way! A very well run rally, lots of portapotties, freebies and no mud!!

  • Anonymous

    I’m waiting to see aerial pictures and hear the estimates given by the unbiased pros, if there are any.

    It seemed much bigger than the biggest event I’d experienced before which was a rock concert back in the 70′s (150,000 people)

  • Anonymous

    I entered the Mall at 4th street. It was standing room only. The crowd was completely impenetrable and every attendee at this point was in physical contact with at least one other person. I stood on the wall of the waterfall at the Indian Museum for a better view and the crowd seemed to be this dense as far as the eye could see which is about three blocks. A little Googling tells me a “fairly” dense crowd is about 18 people per 100 square feet and a little more research tells me the blocks on the Mall are about 0.3 miles square or 2.5 million square feet. If just one block was attended this densely the crowd was 451,630 people. Helluva a lot of people. My estimate is obviously off by a lot. But still, it must have been a helluva lot of people.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_7JYJNBD5ME6PWHXCFB7M7INSJY Judith

    Compared to other gatherings I’ve been to, it was not as big a Woodstock and nowhere near as big as Central Park in 1982. I’d say about the same size as the 1987 Gay Pride rally in DC.

  • http://twitter.com/ILiveJustUp28 Amy from Springdale

    I was there! My husband and I and our friends got there before 9, staked out a great spot with our chairs and blankets, and were immensely enjoying the pre-show stuff. At about 11:00, my friend and I walked to use the porto-johns (which were plentiful and clean), and buy hot dogs. We were gone 25 minutes or so. We tried to get back to our husbands, to no avail. We could see where they were – probably only 50 yards away, and the wall of people would not let us through. My friend and I were never able to get back in the crowd (we sold the hot dogs to people waiting in line), and walked along the mall until finally just getting on the metro at Smithsonian and going back to where our car was in MD. Even closer to the stage, the crowd was so large and so loud, and we were too much on the fringe to hear anything, let alone see the screens. We left. The boys stayed, and had a decent time, although they were worried about us.

    All this to stay: I’ve never seen so many people in my life. Granted, this was my first DC event, but I am positive (after crying my way through throngs of people and nearly throwing up and having a panic attack in the crowd at the metro station), that the number has to be closer to 500,000.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KETMKH3RI4LRQLJIBYIN3PU3Y4 PW

    Attended both rallies Beck and Sanity – pretty close for both, but a lot more peripheral people at Sanity trying to influence people. Guess they missed the point of the rally.

  • Anonymous

    Hey PW, I was there too and I also missed the point. Can you fill me in?

  • http://www.whosays8isenough.net/ debi9kids

    I sure hope someone has an ariel view of the crowds that we can put next to each other to compare.
    An estimate is nice, but proof is even better.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ICPQ4TINRHYC5RL5YFXGU5PCDA GMH

    There were a lot of people. I was in the audience. It is hard for me to estimate because I could not see the whole crowd. But I was way back (near Smithsonian’s Red Building) and it was cramped even there. I would estimate about 500,000.

  • Anonymous

    I have been to many rallies on the mall. There’s no way that the Rally to Restore Sanity was only 250,000. When the March for Women’s Lives was held on the mall in April 5th, 2004 it was the largest rally I had attended there to date. The organizers of that rally had volunteers collecting signatures to verify attendance and spent weeks analyzing the data to guarantee there were no duplicates. The final number counted was over 1 million. But of course the corporate media said almost nothing about it. That crowd I was in clearly wasn’t as tightly packed as the RTRS. There is no way 250,000 people tightly packed can fill most of the mall. Someone needs to call the MythBusters to bust that myth. See Jim Tarrant’s post below on the Metro numbers – “Metro recorded 350,000 trips (0n tickets/passes) going to the destination stops. On a typical Saturday, you would expect to see maybe 5% of that amount.” And that’s just the subway.

  • Anonymous

    I have been to many rallies on the mall. There’s no way that the Rally to Restore Sanity was only 250,000. When the March for Women’s Lives was held on the mall in April 5th, 2004 it was the largest rally I had attended there to date. The organizers of that rally had volunteers collecting signatures to verify attendance and spent weeks analyzing the data to guarantee there were no duplicates. The final number counted was over 1 million. But of course the corporate media said almost nothing about it. That crowd I was in clearly wasn’t as tightly packed as the RTRS. There is no way 250,000 people tightly packed can fill most of the mall. Someone needs to call the MythBusters to bust that myth. See Jim Tarrant’s post below on the Metro numbers – “Metro recorded 350,000 trips (0n tickets/passes) going to the destination stops. On a typical Saturday, you would expect to see maybe 5% of that amount.” And that’s just the subway.

  • http://www.facebook.com/NonCharon Patrick Boatman

    ‎”We’re not going to let anyone get away with saying there were less than six billion there yesterday!”

  • Anonymous

    That is incorrect. NBC news has this rally in the “tens of thousands”. They have the Beck rally at 300,000. There were at least twice as many people at the Beck rally than at the Comedy Central rally – probably three times as many.

  • Anonymous

    Yawn. Boring. “My party was more fabulous then yours!” More people went to college football games yesterday and they at least got a buzz. The real proof will come Tuesday.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=707800877 Rose Lowry

    I heard a news report from the local Fox station. They said, “thousands and thousands” lol. They reported that the Saturday Metro averages 180,000 riders by 3pm. On the day of the Rally, there were 400,000 riders by 3pm. So, roughly 220,000 attendees via the Metro. Now. Add buses, cars, locals, people who stayed in town and didn’t take the Metro. We ended up driving in because we would have missed the event because the Metro was so swamped. ie, a LOT of people got there besides taking the metro. I was at 4th and Jefferson. The sardine-packed crowd filled every crevice on all sides of the mall, it looked like all the way back to the Washington. AMAZING!

  • http://www.facebook.com/BrokenBells4U Mandy Foote

    The numbers are definately low. They also don’t take into account the people who were perched on buildings, in trees, and all along side streets in huge numbers. I was there and I really don’t think 150,000 is correct. It also doesn’t take into account all the people who came late and got turned away because there was no room. That happened a lot.

  • Anonymous

    Sorry conservatives. Whine all you want. Your “protests” just didn’t cut it by the numbers. Truth can be very painful. Have abother drink.

  • Anonymous

    Sorry conservatives. Whine all you want. Your “protests” just didn’t cut it by the numbers. Truth can be very painful. Have abother drink.

  • Anonymous

    Exactly which images did you photoshop to arrive at this conclusion?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_MQH55GNOCY3AWVQEKHB3Y5R7II bouttime

    I was there. Given your reply, no way you were there. lol

    “Your Quote”
    “Packed to capitol to castle, yes, monument…not so much.”

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